We all agree that decision making should be based more on data and analysis than intuition and gut feeling.
But the problem here is that it’s difficult to gather and analyse the data and second, the analysed data or information tells you about the past and cannot give absolute indication of future.
So what to do to predict the future?
Fortunately there is a tool that we can use to predict future and make better choice in long run.
It’s Scenario Planning.
Other concepts that we have seen mostly focuses on most likely outcome.
Scenario Planning is therefore forces the company to think about the other possible outcome and therefore allow you to plan for it.
It would be easy to do Scenario Planning if you list out uncertainties in your business.
We can produce scenarios as below,
- Best Case scenario
- Worst Case Scenario
- Most likely scenario
(It is highly suggested to refer example once)